There Are Worms in the Big Apple

A Plethora of Bullets about New York City...

Ø We know that metropolitan New York has been a hot spot during the Covid-19 epidemic.

Ø It has a higher death rate than the rest of the U.S.

Ø The actual disparity is absolutely shocking.

Ø As a proportion of population, the number of excess deaths (the number of deaths in a given period above those in a typical year) in New York City during the epidemic has been 16 times as high as in the rest of America.

Ø Data about deaths is reliable but Covid-19 data isn’t. Many die during an epidemic because other conditions like heart problems, strokes and severe depression go untreated. Those deaths don’t show up in Covid-19 statistics at all.

Ø A study released May 15 by the city’s Department of Health provides the data but has attracted remarkably little notice...
àIt shows that 32,000 people died in New York City between March 11 and May 2—a period that captures the epidemic’s peak and most of its toll.
àIn typical times, there are some 8,000 New York City deaths between those dates.
àThat means there were 24,000 excess deaths, of which only 14,000 were confirmed as Covid-19.
àIn the entire country during the same period, there were 82,000 excess deaths, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
àNew York City, with 2.5% of the U.S. population, had 29.2% of the country’s excess deaths.

Ø Why has New York been hit so hard?...
àA familiar explanation is blunders by the Trump administration.
àBut if you exclude New Jersey and New York State, U.S. excess deaths were only about 10% above normal.
àGermany was 5% above normal.
àFrance was 25% above normal.
àItaly was 40% above normal.

Ø Some contend that New York is unique in America in its population density and reliance on public transportation...
àThis may be true, but Hong Kong—almost as dense and adjacent to mainland China, where the virus originated—has reported only four Covid-19 fatalities in a population of 7.5 million.

Ø A more credible explanation is the incompetence of New York state and local governments...
àMayor Bill de Blasio, Gov. Andrew Cuomo and the city Health Department were reportedly at loggerheads as the crisis unfolded.
àTheir shutdown orders came too late, after a few critical weeks when the disease was being transmitted exponentially.
àCompounding the error, the New York State Department of Health ordered the transfer of some 4,300 Covid-19 patients from hospitals to nursing homes.
àThis exposed the oldest, frailest and most vulnerable to the virus.

Ø Here’s the good news: If you’re an average American living outside New York City, the epidemic was a period with barely noticeable increased risk...
àOutside of NYC your chance of being an extra fatality was about 1 in 5,000 but in NYC those odds were approximately 1 in 300.
àOutside of NYC, if you were under 50 with no serious health conditions, your risk was in the ballpark of 1 in 50,000 but in NYC those odds were approximately 1 in 3000.

The intelligent analysis above was not of my making, unless you consider Copy Work to be Making. Credit goes to Mr. Robert Rosenkranz who is chairman of Delphi Capital Management and founder of the Intelligence Squared U.S. Debate Series.

Would I kid u about what Mr. Rosenkranz reported on?

Smartfella